October’s New Highs | A Historical Case for Staying the Course

By LaRue Gibson on October 19, 2026

William Shakespeare famously quipped “What Is Past Is Prologue.”  Success in most endeavors, including investment markets, requires an understanding of historical antecedents and learning from their implications for the future. Perhaps you know the phrase “Those who fail to learn from history are destined to repeat it.”  We prefer to apply what has come before to improve the probability of success and reduce the chances of failure. “This time is different” remain the four most dangerous words in investing. Reviewing history, through statistical data, may help improve opportunity while possibly reducing the likelihood of disaster.

New market highs can generate as much anxiety as reassurance, particularly when investors worry that a sustained advance has gone too far. On top of this, the recent loss of confidence in 2026’s driver of market performance, Artificial Intelligence, may challenge investors’ resolve. Yet the historical record suggests that an S&P 500 Index year-to-date closing high during October has often preceded a constructive final two months of the year. The Standard & Poor’s 500 reached a new 2026 closing high of 7,818.93 on October 6^th.

October New Yearly Highs: The Historical Record

Using 98 completed calendar years from 1928 through 2025, we separated years in which October produced a new year-to-date closing high from years in which it did not. We then measured the S&P 500 price change from the last October trading day close to the last December trading day close

The S&P 500 experienced a positive November–December return in 31 of 37 observations, or 83.8% of the time after an October calendar year high. The mean gain was 3.84%, and the median was 4.26%. Both exceeded the corresponding results in years without a new October high. The median performance indicates that the favorable result was not dependent solely on a small number of exceptional gains.

The market’s 2026 October 6th year-to-date closing high qualifies 2026 for the historically stronger group. That does not mean the market has already recorded its final annual high, nor does it establish that November and December will be positive. Rather, it gives investors a quantitative reason to resist treating routine consolidation or short-term volatility as evidence that the larger advance has ended.

A constructive probability is most useful when it complements, rather than replaces, portfolio discipline. We continue to evaluate trend, market breadth, credit conditions, valuations and each client’s investment policy. A high historical win rate does not eliminate the possibility of losses: 6 of the 37 October-high years experienced negative returns over the final two months. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

What the Annual High Calendar Implies

From 1928–2025, October accounted for 6.1% of final annual yearly highs. November for 11.2%, and December for 37.8%. The Annual High Calendar data suggest even higher closes after an October year-to-date high can occur in November or December.

The Investment Perspective

Historical experience favors patience when the S&P 500 establishes a new high in October. For investors, the data argue against reacting reflexively to every pullback after an October annual high. At LRG Wealth Advisors, we follow the weight of the evidence for positioning our clients’ portfolios.

Methodology and Limitations

The study uses daily closing-price observations beginning with December 31, 1927 through October 12, 2026. Only completed years 1928–2025 enter the November–December return statistics and the final-annual-high calendar. A new October Year To Date high means at least one October close exceeded all earlier closing levels in that same calendar year. Returns are price-only, exclude dividends, and are measured from the last available October close to the last available December close. This descriptive study does not control for economic regimes or establish statistical causation; historical frequencies do not guarantee future outcomes.

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