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Past Is Prologue

By LaRue Gibson on November 29, 2023

William Shakespeare famously quipped “Past Is Prologue.” Success in most endeavors, including the markets, requires an understanding of historical antecedents and learning from the implications in the future. Many intone negatively, “Those who fail to learn from history are destined to repeat it.” We prefer the more optimistic viewpoint that history, through statistical data, may offer opportunity and help one avoid disaster.

The S&P 500 has demonstrated extraordinary momentum since late October. The 20-day (trading days) rate of change (%) ranks in
the 99th percentile of readings since 1950! The benchmark last achieved breakaway momentum just after the 2022 market bottom.

Source: Strategas Securities, LLC (11.28.23)

In fact, this data series bodes well for markets into the spring of 2024 as history implies that the strongest 6-month forward performances for the benchmark happen when readings are in 99th percentile extremes. We remind our readers momentum studies show that extreme readings in either direction communicate positive outcomes compared to “normal” readings.

Source: Strategas Securities LLC (11.28.23)

Marry this data with seasonal strength, and we optimistically opine higher prices to come. Stay tuned and stay long.

Do not hesitate to contact us with any questions or thoughts. Take good care.

Source: Strategas Securities LLC (11.28.23)


LRG Wealth Advisors is a group comprised of investment professionals registered with Hightower Advisors, LLC, an SEC registered investment adviser. Some investment professionals may also be registered with Hightower Securities, LLC (member FINRA and SIPC). Advisory services are offered through Hightower Advisors, LLC. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities, LLC.

This is not an offer to buy or sell securities, nor should anything contained herein be construed as a recommendation or advice of any kind. Consult with an appropriately credentialed professional before making any financial, investment, tax or legal decision. No investment process is free of risk, and there is no guarantee that any investment process or investment opportunities will be profitable or suitable for all investors. Past performance is neither indicative nor a guarantee of future results. You cannot invest directly in an index.

These materials were created for informational purposes only; the opinions and positions stated are those of the author(s) and are not necessarily the official opinion or position of Hightower Advisors, LLC or its affiliates (“Hightower”). Any examples used are for illustrative purposes only and based on generic assumptions. All data or other information referenced is from sources believed to be reliable but not independently verified. Information provided is as of the date referenced and is subject to change without notice. Hightower assumes no liability for any action made or taken in reliance on or relating in any way to this information. Hightower makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information, for statements or errors or omissions, or results obtained from the use of this information. References to any person, organization, or the inclusion of external hyperlinks does not constitute endorsement (or guarantee of accuracy or safety) by Hightower of any such person, organization or linked website or the information, products or services contained therein.

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